Abstract:
This research empirically examines the connection between stock market performance, exchange rates and interest rates
using the VECM model and monthly time series data. During the pre hyperinflationary phase findings showed that the
impact of interest rates on stock market performance were mixed. Stock market performance converged to long run
equilibrium with bank rates (1.4%) within 8 months. Unidirectional causality moves from stock market to exchange rates,
Treasury bill rates and deposit rates. Bank rates granger causes stock market performance. In hyperinflationary period
exchange rate and deposit rates had a positive impact on stock market performance while Treasury bills had a negative
effect. In long term the convergence to equilibrium with stock market performance was at rates of 1.3%, 1.5% and 1.8%
for exchange rates, Treasury bills and deposit rates respectively. Causality between stock market and exchange rates was
bidirectional while unidirectional causality moved from stock market performance to interest rates. Sound exchange rates
and treasury bills policies in the long term help stabilize the stock market. Mismanagement of exchange rates and interest
rates by monetary authorities will destabilize the stock market. Changes in exchange rates and bank rates are important to
investors in the short term.
